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Reading 43

Equity Investments · Company Analysis: Past and Present

MODULE 43.1: COMPANY RESEARCH REPORTS

LOS 43.a

Describe the elements that should be covered in a thorough company research report.

A company research report includes an analyst's valuation and investment recommendations, based on the company's projected earnings, cash flows, and financial position.

An initial research report for external distribution (said to be "initiating coverage" of a company) is likely to be thorough, followed by subsequent reports that are less thorough. These may focus on more specific topics or serve as updates to previously issued reports. A research report that is only for internal distribution is likely to be less thorough and may even be provided verbally.

Key items typically included in an initial company research report are as follows:

  • Front matter (e.g., issuer name, buy/hold/sell recommendation, target buy/sell prices, and legal disclosures)
  • Rationales for the recommendation
  • Company description (e.g., business model, strategy)
  • Industry overview and competitive positioning (e.g., industry size, growth rate and main drivers, profitability, competitive analysis)
  • Financial analysis and model (e.g., past and pro forma financial statements; analysis and projection of revenue, cost, and cash flow drivers and sources and uses of capital)
  • Valuation (e.g., value vs. target price, using either or both of relative and present value methodologies)
  • Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors
  • Key upside and downside risks and their valuation impact

Key items typically included in a subsequent company research report are as follows:

  • Front matter
  • Recommendation, including rationales for changes
  • Analysis of new information (e.g., variance analysis of expected vs. actual results; updated financial statements)
  • Changes to the initial valuation with supporting rationales
  • Changes in risks since the initial or most recent report
中文翻譯

公司研究報告包含分析師對公司的估值與投資建議,依據其預估的盈餘、現金流量與財務狀況。

對外發布的首次研究報告(稱為「啟動覆蓋(initiating coverage)」)內容最完整;之後的後續報告較精簡,多聚焦特定主題或為更新。僅供內部使用的研究報告通常較簡略,甚至以口頭形式提供。

初次報告常見內容:

  • 前置資訊:發行公司名、買/持有/賣建議、目標買賣價、法律聲明
  • 建議的理由
  • 公司描述(商業模式、策略)
  • 產業概覽與競爭定位(規模、成長率、獲利能力、競爭分析)
  • 財務分析與模型(過去與預估財報、營收/成本/現金流驅動因子、資金來源與用途)
  • 估值(相對估值或現值法,比對目標價)
  • ESG 因子(環境、社會、治理)
  • 關鍵上行與下行風險及其對估值的影響

後續報告常見內容:前置資訊、建議與變動理由、新資訊分析(差異/變異分析、更新財報)、估值修正及理由、風險變化。

LOS 43.b

Determine a company's business model.

A company's business model will highlight the key drivers that ultimately affect its income statement and balance sheet. The business model is the foundation for determining the analyst's expectations.

The business model considers the following items that describe its operations:

  1. Products and services
  2. Customers
  3. Sales channels
  4. Pricing and payment terms
  5. Suppliers and other key relationships

Analysts should inquire into what and to whom the company is selling, its methods of obtaining customers, its methods of distributing its products or providing its services, its price setting, and its key supplier relationships. They should also analyze the bargaining power of customers (e.g., few or many customers) and the bargaining power of suppliers (e.g., specialized or common inputs). If a company uses a traditional business model, an analyst should highlight any ways this specific company's model differs from those used by its peers.

Analysts use four general types of information to determine a company's business model:

  1. Information directly from the company (e.g., annual or quarterly regulatory filings, investor presentations, press releases, investor relations department, website)
  2. Publicly available third-party information (e.g., analyst reports, government research and reports, news outlets, social media)
  3. Proprietary third-party information (e.g., analyst reports, Bloomberg)
  4. Proprietary primary research, performed or commissioned by the analyst (e.g., surveys, market studies)
中文翻譯

商業模式凸顯影響損益表與資產負債表的關鍵驅動因子,是分析師形成預期的基礎。

商業模式應涵蓋五項營運要素:

  1. 產品與服務
  2. 客戶
  3. 銷售通路
  4. 定價與付款條件
  5. 供應商及其他關鍵關係

分析師應檢視:賣什麼、賣給、如何取得客戶、如何配送或交付服務定價方式、與主要供應商的關係。亦須分析客戶議價力(客戶多寡)與供應商議價力(投入是專屬或一般化)。若公司採傳統商業模式,分析師應指出其與同業的差異。

判斷商業模式所用的四類資訊

  1. 公司直接提供:年/季報、投資人簡報、新聞稿、IR 部門、官網
  2. 公開的第三方資訊:分析師報告、政府研究、新聞、社群媒體
  3. 付費的第三方資訊:分析師報告、Bloomberg
  4. 分析師自行或委外進行的初級研究:問卷調查、市場研究
Module Quiz 43.1
1. Which of the following statements regarding company research reports subsequent to initiating coverage is most accurate?
  • A. The report updates the recommendation in light of new information about the company.
  • B. The primary audience is those who are not already knowledgeable about the company or security.
  • C. The report provides information such as industry overview, competitive positioning, and ESG considerations.
A — Subsequent research reports update the recommendation and rationale from an initial research report. The primary audience for an initial company report is those who are not already knowledgeable about the issuer or security. (LOS 43.a)
2. Reports and data from Bloomberg are best considered to be:
  • A. public third-party sources.
  • B. proprietary primary research.
  • C. proprietary third-party sources.
C — Reports and data from platforms such as Bloomberg and FactSet are classified as proprietary third-party sources, available for a fee. They are not publicly available for free (e.g., general news, social media), and the information provided is not primary research. (LOS 43.b)

MODULE 43.2: REVENUE, PROFITABILITY AND CAPITAL

LOS 43.c

Evaluate a company's revenue and revenue drivers, including pricing power.

Revenue Drivers

After analyzing a company's business model, and before financial forecasting that leads to an eventual valuation of a company, an analyst must examine the company's past and current financial statements. Financial statement analysis most commonly begins with the income statement — specifically, revenues. The focus is on revenue drivers, which can be analyzed on a bottom-up or top-down basis.

  • In a bottom-up analysis, revenue is broken down into specific drivers such as price and volume, business segments, or geography.
  • In a top-down analysis, macroeconomic variables such as market share or GDP growth serve as drivers of revenue.

Analysts often use both approaches to evaluate a company.

Pricing Power

Revenues are driven by prices, and prices are limited by the company's pricing power — the extent to which a company can determine its selling prices without hurting sales. Pricing power depends on the market structure of an industry, as well as the company's competitive position in the market.

Highly competitive markets are characterized by companies that sell virtually identical items. In such cases, companies have low pricing power, and the price is determined by supply and demand. This means that all participants are price takers (will sell at the market price). In the long run, price-taker markets usually result in returns being close to the cost of capital, so there is zero economic profit. One notable exception is a low-cost producer. A company that has significantly lower costs than its competitors may earn returns exceeding the cost of capital, but to sustain such profits in the long run would require the company to maintain its cost advantage permanently.

Highly competitive markets are also characterized as follows: absence of product differentiation, many substitutes, few or no barriers to entry, little or no brand loyalty, and low or no switching costs. Commoditization describes an industry that is evolving toward this state as more participants enter the market. In a commoditizing industry, participants tend to innovate less and imitate each other more.

Less competitive markets (monopoly, oligopoly, monopolistic competition) are characterized by greater product differentiation, few or no substitutes, high barriers to entry, high customer loyalty, and high switching costs. In such markets, companies may have some or considerable pricing power, which allows for price increases without significant declines in sales. Strategies such as value-based pricing and price discrimination require a company to have pricing power.

Profit margins can be an indicator of pricing power. When prices rise more than costs over time, this demonstrates the ability of a company to transfer those costs to its customers through higher prices without losing sales. This is more likely in a market that exhibits high switching costs or for a product that does not have good substitutes.

Macro Factors

A top-down approach considers how external (macro) factors affect revenue, including market size and the company's market share. Market size refers to the total revenue of all the companies in the market. Market share is the ratio of the company's revenue to the market size. Tracking market share over time provides insights as to how favorably the company is viewed by customers.

Computing market size can be problematic. For example, should it include only sales of identical products, or should it include sales of similar or substitute products? Analysts typically include identical and similar products but exclude substitute products, but that is not always appropriate.

中文翻譯

營收驅動因子可採兩種角度分析:

  • 由下而上(bottom-up):拆成價格與數量、業務分部、地理區域等具體因子。
  • 由上而下(top-down):以市占率、GDP 成長率等總體變數為驅動。

實務常並用兩法。

定價力(pricing power):公司能在不傷害銷量下決定售價的能力。取決於市場結構與公司的競爭地位

高度競爭市場:商品幾近同質,公司為價格接受者,價格由供需決定,長期報酬約等於資金成本,經濟利潤=0。例外為低成本生產者,需永久維持成本優勢方能持續高報酬。特徵:缺乏差異化、替代品多、進入障礙低、品牌忠誠度低、轉換成本低。商品化(commoditization)=產業向此狀態演化,業者創新減少、互相模仿

低度競爭市場(獨占、寡占、獨占性競爭):差異化高、替代品少、進入障礙高、客戶忠誠度高、轉換成本高,公司具一定/相當定價力價值基礎定價價格歧視策略均需定價力。

毛利率可作為定價力指標:價格漲幅高於成本,且銷量未受損,代表能將成本轉嫁。轉換成本高或缺乏好替代品的市場較容易達成。

總體因素(top-down)

  • 市場規模=市場內所有公司的總營收
  • 市占率=公司營收 ÷ 市場規模;觀察其時間變動可看客戶觀感

市場規模計算的爭議:是否納入相似品或替代品?實務上多納入相同與相似品,但排除替代品,但並非永遠適當。

LOS 43.d

Evaluate a company's operating profitability and working capital using key measures.

Operating Costs

Company financial statements reflect three types of costs: operating costs, investing costs (e.g., purchase of capital and intangible assets), and financing costs (e.g., interest expense). Here we focus on operating costs, which are those a company incurs in generating current period revenue. An analyst might not necessarily regard a company's costs the same way IFRS and U.S. GAAP treat them. For example, research and development costs would logically be considered investing costs, but the accounting standards treat them as operating costs.

Operating costs are driven by business model and company size. We can categorize operating costs in the following three ways:

  • By their relationship with output (fixed or variable)
  • By nature (e.g., work in process, utilities, promotion)
  • By function (e.g., selling, advertising, travel, income tax)

Analyzing Costs by Relationship With Output

We can state operating profit in terms of fixed and variable costs:

\[ \text{Operating profit} = [Q \times (P - VC)] - FC \]

where:
\(Q\) = number of units sold
\(P\) = price per unit
\(VC\) = variable costs per unit, those that change with the level of output (e.g., materials, direct labor)
\(FC\) = fixed costs in total, those that do not change within a specific range of output (e.g., rent, management salaries)

The term \((P - VC)\) in this equation is known as the contribution margin (CM) per unit. A company will earn profits when the CM per unit is positive and \(Q\) is large enough that the total contribution margin is greater than fixed costs.

Operating leverage results from the fixed portion of a company's operating costs. The larger the proportion of a company's costs that are fixed, the more rapidly operating profits will increase with a given increase in quantity sold (and the faster they will decrease with a given decrease in quantity). We can express operating leverage using a metric called the degree of operating leverage (DOL):

\[ DOL = \frac{\%\Delta \text{ operating profit}}{\%\Delta \text{ sales}} \]

Analyzing Costs by Nature or Function

In looking at costs from an accounting perspective, a functional classification is usually the norm. The result is consistency among companies in how they present income statement line items that refer to specific functions (e.g., "cost of sales" and "selling, general, and administrative").

Common metrics used for operating profitability include gross profit; earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA); and earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT). EBIT is often referred to as operating profit.

\[ \text{Gross profit} = \text{Revenue} - \text{Cost of sales} \] \[ \text{EBITDA} = \text{Gross profit} - \text{Operating expenses} \] \[ \text{EBIT} = \text{EBITDA} - \text{Depreciation and amortization} \]

We may divide each of these measures by revenue to produce the ratios gross margin, EBITDA margin, and EBIT margin (or operating margin).

Although functional cost classifications are not the same as classifying based on fixed and variable costs, the concepts overlap. For many companies the cost of sales is highly variable, so that gross margin and contribution margin are often similar amounts. Many operating expenses reported as separate line items on the income statement, such as rent, promotion, and management salaries, are mainly fixed in nature.

Operating costs are largely driven by the level of output. That is obvious for variable costs, but it is also true in the long run for fixed costs because increases in output eventually require cash outlays such as the purchase of more productive equipment. Because companies within a particular industry earn the same types of revenues and incur similar input costs, it is competition among the companies that determines industry profitability. For example, in a highly competitive industry, if one company decreases its prices, then other companies are likely to follow. The end result may be reduced industry profitability. Analysts should consider individual company profitability in the context of overall industry profitability.

Economies of scale occur when increasing output decreases unit costs. The basic idea is that the company's fixed costs are being allocated over a greater amount of output. However, even a company with a high proportion of variable costs can experience economies of scale if it becomes large enough to exert greater bargaining power over its suppliers and reduce its variable costs over time.

Economies of scope occur when adding divisions or product lines results in decreasing unit costs. This can result if multiple divisions or product lines share costs and reduce redundancies. For example, each division would need its own human resources department if it were a stand-alone company, but as divisions of a larger firm they can use the same human resources department.

Working Capital

Analysts can evaluate a company's working capital management in terms of its cash conversion cycle. The longer the cash conversion cycle, the more need a company has to finance working capital.

Another key measure is the ratio of net working capital to sales. When net working capital is positive, the company can finance its working capital needs from internal sources. When net working capital is negative, financing is being provided by external sources (e.g., suppliers).

中文翻譯

財報反映三類成本:營業成本、投資性成本(購置資產/無形資產)、融資成本(利息)。本節聚焦營業成本——即為產生當期營收所發生者。分析師對成本的歸類未必與 IFRS/US GAAP 一致;例如研發費用邏輯上屬投資成本,但會計準則歸為營業成本。

營業成本由商業模式公司規模驅動。三種分類方式:

  • 依與產出的關係(固定或變動)
  • 性質(在製品、水電、促銷)
  • 功能(銷售、廣告、差旅、所得稅)

固定/變動分析

\[ \text{營業利潤} = [Q \times (P - VC)] - FC \]

\((P - VC)\) 為單位邊際貢獻(contribution margin, CM)。當單位 CM 為正且 \(Q\) 大到 \(Q \times CM > FC\) 時公司獲利。

營業槓桿由固定成本部分產生:固定成本比重越大,營業利潤對銷量變動越敏感。營業槓桿度(DOL)=營業利潤變動% ÷ 銷售變動%。

性質/功能分析:會計上多用功能分類,使各公司損益表項目(如「銷貨成本」「銷管費用」)一致。常用獲利指標:

  • 毛利=營收 − 銷貨成本
  • EBITDA=毛利 − 營業費用
  • EBIT(=營業利潤)=EBITDA − 折舊攤銷

各除以營收即得毛利率、EBITDA margin、營業利益率。功能分類雖非依固定/變動,但兩者觀念重疊:銷貨成本多為變動,故毛利率與邊際貢獻率常相近;租金、促銷、管理人員薪資等多屬固定。

長期來看固定成本也由產出驅動(產量擴大終須購置更多設備)。在同一產業中,競爭強度決定整體獲利水準(高競爭中削價會跟隨)。分析個別公司獲利須放在產業整體獲利脈絡中。

規模經濟(economies of scale):產量增加 → 單位成本下降(固定成本分攤)。即使變動成本比重高的公司,因規模擴大而提升對供應商的議價力,也能降低變動成本。

範疇經濟(economies of scope):增加部門/產品線 → 單位成本下降(共用成本、減少冗餘,如共用人資部門)。

營運資金:用現金轉換循環(CCC)評估,CCC 越長,融資需求越大。另一指標為淨營運資金 ÷ 銷售:正值表示可由內部資金支應;負值表示由外部(如供應商)提供融資。

LOS 43.e

Evaluate a company's capital investments and capital structure.

A company's sources of capital include cash flows from operations, proceeds from debt and share issuances, and proceeds from asset sales. Uses of capital include liquidity in the form of cash and marketable securities; purchases of tangible and intangible assets; debt repayment; dividend payments; and share repurchases.

Evaluating a company's capital investments involves determining whether the company has earned at least the required rate of return in the long run, and therefore created economic value from the investors' capital. Evaluating its capital structure involves determining whether its opportunities exceed the risks.

In assessing capital structure risks, analysts use measures such as leverage ratios, coverage ratios, and the degree of financial leverage (DFL):

\[ DFL = \frac{\%\Delta \text{ net income}}{\%\Delta \text{ operating income}} \]

DFL increases when a company adds fixed interest expense by borrowing.

Unlevered returns are expressed as return on assets (ROA) or return on invested capital (ROIC). Financial leverage is reflected in return on equity (ROE). ROE can be decomposed using DuPont analysis to highlight the factors that affect it, including financial leverage.

中文翻譯

資金來源:營運現金流、債/股發行、資產出售。資金用途:現金與有價證券、購置有形/無形資產、還債、股利、股票回購。

評估資本投資=公司長期是否至少賺到必要報酬率,從而為投資人創造經濟價值。評估資本結構=判斷其機會是否超過風險。

評估資本結構風險的指標:槓桿比率、利息保障倍數,以及財務槓桿度(DFL)

\[ DFL = \frac{\%\Delta \text{ 淨利}}{\%\Delta \text{ 營業利潤}} \]

當公司舉債增加固定利息費用時,DFL 上升。

未槓桿化報酬:ROA、ROIC;財務槓桿反映於 ROE。ROE 可用杜邦分析拆解,觀察包括財務槓桿在內的影響因子。

Module Quiz 43.2
1. A pet food company earned $500 million in revenue in the current year. Based on an estimated market share of 10%, what is the market size for pet food?
  • A. $50.0 million.
  • B. $4.5 billion.
  • C. $5.0 billion.
C — Market share = revenue / market size = 0.10 = $500 million / market size. So, market size = $5 billion. (LOS 43.c)
2. Jayco Inc. sells 10,000 units at a price of $5 per unit. Jayco's fixed costs are $8,000, interest expense is $2,000, variable costs are $3 per unit, and EBIT is $12,000. Disregarding taxes, the degree of operating leverage (DOL) and degree of financial leverage (DFL) are closest to:
  • A. 2.50 DOL and 1.00 DFL.
  • B. 1.67 DOL and 2.00 DFL.
  • C. 1.67 DOL and 1.20 DFL.
C — Jayco's operating income is $12,000. If its sales increase by 1%, its operating income will increase to \(1.01(10{,}000)(\$5 - \$3) - \$8{,}000 = \$12{,}200\), which is an increase of \(\$200 / \$12{,}000 = 0.0167\) or 1.67%. Therefore Jayco's DOL is \(1.67\% / 1\% = 1.67\). Jayco's net income is \(\$12{,}000 - \$2{,}000 = \$10{,}000\). If its operating income increases by 1% to \(1.01(\$12{,}000) = \$12{,}120\), its net income will increase to \(\$12{,}120 - \$2{,}000 = \$10{,}120\), which is an increase of \(\$120 / \$10{,}000 = 0.012\) or 1.2%. Therefore Jayco's DFL is \(1.20\% / 1\% = 1.20\). (LOS 43.d, 43.e)
KEY CONCEPTS
LOS 43.a — Company Research Reports

Key items typically included in an initial company research report:

  • Front matter
  • Recommendation, including rationales behind the recommendation
  • Company description
  • Industry overview and competitive positioning
  • Financial analysis
  • Valuation
  • ESG factors
  • Risks and their valuation impact

Key items typically included in a subsequent company research report:

  • Front matter
  • Changes in recommendation with rationales
  • Analysis of new information
  • Changes in valuation and risks
LOS 43.b — Business Model

A business model considers a company's products and services, customers, sales channels, pricing and payment terms, and reliance on key suppliers.

LOS 43.c — Revenue and Pricing Power

Revenue drivers can be analyzed bottom-up based on financial statements or top-down based on economic and industry factors.

Pricing power is a function of market structure and a company's competitive position. Companies in highly competitive markets have low pricing power. Pricing power for companies in less competitive markets may result from greater product differentiation, lack of good substitutes, high barriers to entry, high customer loyalty, and high switching costs.

LOS 43.d — Operating Profitability and Working Capital

\[ \text{Operating profit} = [Q \times (P - VC)] - FC \]

\[ \text{Contribution margin per unit} = (P - VC) \]

\[ \text{Degree of operating leverage} = \frac{\%\Delta \text{ operating profit}}{\%\Delta \text{ sales}} \]

Economies of scale occur when increases in output decrease unit costs. Economies of scope occur when adding divisions or product lines decreases unit costs.

A long (short) cash conversion cycle indicates greater (less) need for external financing.

LOS 43.e — Capital Investments and Capital Structure

In assessing capital structure risks, the degree of financial leverage (DFL) is often used:

\[ DFL = \frac{\%\Delta \text{ net income}}{\%\Delta \text{ operating income}} \]

Unlevered returns are expressed as return on assets (ROA) or return on invested capital (ROIC). Levered returns are expressed as return on equity (ROE).

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